AFAC, the National Council for fire and emergency services, has released the Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Winter 2024 (External link)
Temperature
Across Australia, there is an increased likelihood of unusually high maximum temperatures for this time of year, with both maximum and minimum temperatures during June to August very likely to be above median across all states and territories.
Rainfall
There is no strong signal towards wetter or drier than average rainfall for the more populated southern regions of the country, including southwest WA, southeast SA, eastern NSW, Victoria, and Tasmania, as well as broadly across the northern half of the country.
Large parts of the southern interior have increased chances of above median rainfall, most notably across northeast SA, inland NSW and western WA. Some parts of southern Australia have a slightly increased chance of unusually high rainfall.
Bushfire risk
Above average temperatures and areas of seasonally low rainfall will see a decline in soil moisture to August which may influence fire potential in the lead up to spring, but large parts of the country are still expected to be at near or above average soil moisture levels.
Fire agencies across Australia will continue bushfire mitigation activities, including prescribed burns, where conditions allow.
While all of Australia shows normal risk of fire during this outlook period, communities are encouraged to be vigilant and stay alert through winter months.
Destructive and deadly fires can still occur during normal bushfire seasons across Australia.