Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Summer 2023

All hazards

Risks spanning across multiple hazard types and across the emergency management system.

Biosecurity

Exotic animal and plant disease outbreaks and pest incursions can have significant economic, community and environmental impacts.

Bushfire and other fires

Bushfire and other fires have potential consequences including loss of life and property, and damage to infrastructure and environment.

Climate change

Risks include more days of extreme heat, harsher fire weather, less rainfall and rising sea levels.

Communications disruption

Communications services are crucial in keeping communities safe, connected and informed before, during and after emergencies.

Cyber security and ICT systems failure

Risks relating to the confidentiality, availability, integrity of information and data and disruption of services.

Energy supply disruption

Reliable energy supplies are critical to many social and economic activities.

Flood

Major flood events have occurred in Victoria every 10 to 20 years, with much of the increasing risk created by human settlement.

Hazardous material incident

Potential risks relate to many places where Victoria’s hazardous materials are manufactured, stored, transported, used and disposed.

Heatwave

Heatwaves are considered to be the ‘silent killer’ of extreme weather events and are the leading cause of weather-related deaths in Australia.

Public health emergency

Risks may relate to the delivery of public health services, with impacts on community health and wellbeing and potential for loss of life.

Supply chain disruption

Geopolitical, environmental, economic, societal and infrastructure-related shocks can expose supply chains to wide ranging consequences.

Terrorism and extremism

Attacks carried out by individuals or non-state groups with ideological, political or religious goals can result in loss of life, severe injury and/or material damage.

Water supply disruption

Risks include collection, storage, treatment, delivery, availability and allocation of water for consumption and environmental, recreation and cultural uses.

Workforce and resourcing

Risks may relate to human resource supply and skills to support emergency management operations.

AFAC, the National Council for fire and emergency services, has released its Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Summer 2023 (External link).

The Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Summer 2023 serves as a reminder to prepare for bushfire and monitor local conditions.

Australia has experienced record-breaking dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures during early spring, with hot and dry conditions expected to persist into the new year for many locations.

Abundant vegetation growth supported by previous La Niña rainfall will continue to dry throughout summer, increasing the flammability of fuel loads. This includes some areas burnt during 2019-20 season.

These factors are driving increased risk of fire for large areas of Queensland, NSW, and NT, as well as locations in Tasmania, Victoria, SA and WA.

Fire potential can vary greatly, even at the smaller scale, between bordering states and territories. Each state and territory’s assessment takes into account different land use types and vegetation types. This is influenced by different forecasts for temperature and rainfall over these regions.

Stay informed and prepared, and check official sources for advice and warnings (External link).

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